食品新闻中心
News
产品中心 您的位置: 首页 > 产品中心
亚博888app_疫情以来,哪个国家的表现最好?
发布人: 薇草食品 来源: 薇草食品公司 发布时间: 2021-01-10 09:53:01

亚博888app_疫情以来,哪个国家的表现最好?

Last week, we posted an article on the research report of the Ferguson team at Imperial College London (unfortunately, Ferguson himself was also diagnosed with the new crown virus recently). His report not only scared the British and American governments, but also us China. Readers were scared.

上周,我们在伦敦帝国理工学院的弗格森小组的研究报告上发表了一篇文章(不幸的是,弗格森本人最近也被诊断出患有新的冠状病毒)。他的报告不仅吓到了英美两国政府,而且还吓到了中国。读者很害怕。

Two days after the publication of this review article ("A report directly changed the anti-epidemic measures in the United Kingdom and the United States"), 3.7 million+ readers read it, and the readers also launched a fierce debate in the article comment area.

这篇评论文章(“报告直接改变了英国和美国的抗流行病措施”)发布两天后,有370万以上的读者阅读了该文章,并且读者还在文章评论区展开了激烈的辩论。

The main focus of the debate, to put it bluntly, is which country performed well in this fight against the epidemic.

坦率地说,辩论的主要重点是哪个国家在这场流行病斗争中表现良好。

But for this kind of topic, if more objective standards are not introduced, it is difficult to make it clear based on emotion or standpoint alone.

但是对于这种话题,如果不引入更客观的标准,就很难仅凭情感或立场就将其弄清楚。

So, today we are going to review two very important articles with you, both of which were written by the same author, Tomas Pueyo. The article explains how to understand the severity of the epidemic, how countries should fight the epidemic, and how to achieve a better anti-epidemic effect. It is extremely clear.

因此,今天我们将与您一起回顾两个非常重要的文章,它们都是由同一位作者Tomas Pueyo撰写的。这篇文章解释了如何理解这种流行病的严重性,各国应如何抗击该流行病以及如何取得更好的抗流行病效果。非常清楚。

One of the articles is titled "Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now" (Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now). After it was published on March 10, it received 40 million page views within a week. This is only the English version. the amount. At the same time, this article has been translated into more than 30 language versions by enthusiastic netizens (there are also Chinese versions, two versions, simplified and traditional), and it has been widely disseminated worldwide.

其中一篇文章的标题为“冠状病毒:为什么必须立即采取行动”(冠状病毒:为什么必须立即采取行动)。自3月10日发布以来,它在一周内获得了4000万次网页浏览。这只是英文版。数量。同时,热情的网民已将本文翻译成30多种语言版本(还有中文版本,简体和繁体两种版本),并已在全世界广泛传播。

The reason why netizens from various countries are so enthusiastic to translate this article is the same as our reason for writing today's article: because the reason is good. Thomas Puyo's article is well-documented and clear, and it is worth reading it carefully for everyone who cares about the epidemic.

来自各个国家/地区的网民如此热衷于翻译这篇文章的原因与我们撰写今天这篇文章的理由相同:因为理由很好。托马斯·普约(Thomas Puyo)的文章有据可查且清晰明了,值得所有关心这一流行病的人仔细阅读。

The first simple criterion for judging the resistance of countries to the epidemic is the fatality rate.

判断各国对流行病的抵抗力的第一个简单标准是死亡率。

Let's analyze the fatality rate first.

让我们首先分析死亡率。

Let me give Thomas Puyo's conclusion:

让我给出托马斯·普约的结论:

Of course, whether it is 3-5% or 1%, it will bring sad death. Moreover, if the infection base is large, even if the fatality rate is only 1%, the death toll is shocking.

当然,无论是3-5%还是1%,都会带来悲伤的死亡。而且,如果感染基数很大,即使死亡率仅为1%,死亡人数也令人震惊。

The fatality rate is not static. The fatality rate calculated at different times will be different. But regarding the fatality rate, we first need to understand that there are two algorithms. Let's call it lethality (T, total) and lethality (C, closed) for now:

死亡率不是一成不变的。在不同时间计算的死亡率将有所不同。但是关于死亡率,我们首先需要了解有两种算法。现在我们将其称为杀伤力(T,总计)和杀伤力(C,关闭):

Under this algorithm, because the cycle of death and closure of infected persons is shorter than that of other confirmed but recovered cases, the fatality rate fluctuates greatly. It will be very high at first, and then will slowly fall back over time.

在这种算法下,由于感染者的死亡和关闭的周期比其他已确诊但已经康复的病例要短,因此病死率波动很大。首先,它会很高,然后随着时间的流逝会慢慢回落。

What is interesting is that although the two algorithms are different and the fatality rate fluctuates over time, as time goes by, after the confirmed patients are closed, the fatality rate curves of the two algorithms will converge and tend to be the same.

有趣的是,尽管这两种算法是不同的,并且病死率会随时间波动,但随着时间的流逝,在确认的患者关闭后,这两种算法的病死率曲线将收敛并且趋于相同。

This convergent value is summarized according to the lethality curve in different regions. In most cases, the final death rate is close to 4%.

根据不同地区的致死率曲线汇总该收敛值。在大多数情况下,最终死亡率接近4%。

Based on this, Puyo calculated the fatality rate in several countries:

基于此,Puyo计算了几个国家的死亡率:

By the fatality rate standard, South Korea is a relatively good country in terms of epidemic control, while the epidemic in Italy almost collapsed.

从病死率标准来看,韩国在流行病控制方面是一个相对较好的国家,而意大利的流行病几乎崩溃了。

How about China's performance?

中国的表现如何?

On the whole, in terms of fatality rate, it is not good, worse than Italy, and even worse than South Korea. (Editor's note: Since the epidemic was discovered earlier in China, today with highly developed global informatization, other countries have learned from the epidemic situation. This is not a criticism of a country, but an inference based on the current actual situation)

总的来说,就死亡率而言,这是不好的,比意大利还差,甚至比韩国还差。 (编者注:自从在中国较早发现该流行病以来,今天随着全球信息化高度发达,其他国家已经从该流行病中吸取了教训。这不是对一个国家的批评,而是根据当前实际情况得出的推论。)

But there is a special situation to be aware of, that is, the fatality rate in Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province is significantly different.

但是有一个特殊的情况要注意,那就是湖北省和湖北省以外的致死率明显不同。

Puyo also emphasized this point in the article. If we look at Hubei Province and non-Hubei Province separately, it may be more in line with our intuitive feelings:

Puyo在文章中也强调了这一点。如果我们分别看湖北省和非湖北省,那可能更符合我们的直觉:

(1) The fatality rate in Hubei Province: about 4.8%;

(1)湖北省病死率:约4.8%;

(2) The fatality rate in non-Hubei Province: about 0.9%.

(2)非湖北省病死率:约0.9%。

In other words, in the domestic fight against the epidemic, the performance of non-Hubei Province is relatively better than that of Hubei Province.

换句话说,在国内抗击流行病方面,非湖北省的表现相对优于湖北省。

However, we all know that the costs behind this are huge, including economic and personal rights. Moreover, after the world has entered a period of high epidemics, it is still difficult to determine whether China will have a second high epidemic. As long as the epidemic is unstable, the price China has to pay will not stop.

但是,我们都知道,这样做的代价是巨大的,包括经济和个人权利。而且,在世界进入高流行期之后,仍然很难确定中国是否会再次出现高流行。只要疫情不稳定,中国必须付出的代价就不会停止。

In addition to the fatality rate, the second criterion for judging the anti-epidemic performance of countries is the degree to which the case curve has been flattened.

除了死亡率之外,判断国家抗流行病表现的第二个标准是病案曲线趋于平坦的程度。

Leaving aside the influence of factors such as weather and age, an important factor affecting the fatality rate is the medical service capacity within a country.

撇开天气和年龄等因素的影响,影响死亡率的重要因素是一个国家的医疗服务能力。

Medical service capabilities involve hospital beds, special medical equipment, front-line medical staff, protective equipment for medical staff, and testing reagents.

医疗服务能力包括医院病床,特殊医疗设备,一线医务人员,医务人员防护设备和测试试剂。

Simply put, even if the medical profession has not yet developed a vaccine and cannot find an "antidote", as long as the infected patient can be taken care of by the medical system, the probability of death will be greatly reduced, despite some crimes.

简而言之,即使医学界尚未开发出疫苗并且找不到“解毒剂”,只要受感染的患者能够被医疗系统照料,即使有一些犯罪,死亡的可能性也会大大降低。 。

However, when the epidemic is high, any country, whether it is a first-tier developed country or a second-tier third-tier relatively underdeveloped country, has insufficient medical service capabilities.

但是,当疫情高发时,任何国家,无论是一线发达国家还是二线第三级相对欠发达国家,都缺乏足够的医疗服务能力。

Taking this epidemic as an example, looking around the world, there are no exceptions.

以这种流行病为例,环顾全球,没有例外。

Insufficient medical services are very fatal. This is not only because the probability of death of directly infected patients has increased, but also that patients who are not related to the epidemic but rely heavily on medical services to continue their lives will also increase the probability of death due to the lack of timely medical care under the impact of the epidemic.

医疗服务不足是非常致命的。这不仅是因为直接感染的患者死亡的可能性增加了,而且与该流行病无关但严重依赖医疗服务以继续其生命的患者也会由于缺乏及时性而增加死亡的可能性流行病的影响下的医疗。

In order to make it easier for everyone to understand, the picture above is a visual indication.

为了使每个人都更容易理解,上面的图片是视觉指示。

Both the red area and the yellow area represent the daily number of infected people. The area of ​​the two is the same, that is, the number of infected people is the same. The difference is that the red area is steeper. The highest peak and most of the areas on both sides exceed the level of medical service capacity. In some cases, the degree of danger has greatly increased.

红色区域和黄色区域均代表每日感染人数。两者的面积相同,即被感染的人数相同。区别在于红色区域更陡峭。最高峰和两侧的大多数区域都超出了医疗服务水平。在某些情况下,危险程度已大大增加。

The curve in the yellow area is flatter, and the highest peak does not cross the level of medical service capacity, so all cases can receive medical care.

黄色区域的曲线较为平坦,最高峰未超过医疗服务水平,因此所有病例都可以得到医疗护理。

To sum up, under the same conditi亚博888appons as the total number of cases, cases erupt in different curves, which pose different challenges to medical service capabilities and have different effects on fatalities. The smoother the case curve, the lower the fatality rate can be controlled. Conversely, the steeper the case curve, the higher the fatality rate.

综上所述,在与病例总数相同的条件下,病例以不同的曲线爆发,这给医疗服务能力带来了不同的挑战,并对死亡造成了不同的影响。病例曲线越平滑,死亡率可控制的越低。相反,病案曲线越陡峭,病死率越高。

This is the key to whether an area can accept and treat patients after the outbreak.

这是疫情爆发后一个地区是否可以接受和治疗患者的关键。

To repeat: If a place has sufficient medical resources to effectively treat patients, the probability of death will be reduced. On the contrary, when the medical system is overwhelmed, not only the hospital cannot admit so many patients, but the mortality rate increases. , It may also cause the medical resources originally used to treat other types of diseases to be squeezed. Some patients who have not been infected with the new crown virus will be affected as a result, and severely will indirectly cause the death of these people.

重复:如果一个地方有足够的医疗资源来有效地治疗患者,则死亡的可能性将降低。相反,当医疗体系不堪重负时,不仅医院不能接纳这么多病人,而且死亡率也增加了。 ,这也可能导致原本用于治疗其他类型疾病的医疗资源受到挤压。结果,一些未感染新冠状病毒的患者将受到影响,并严重地间接导致这些人的死亡。

Not only that, after exceeding the medical service capacity, the frontline medical staff will not only work with a high load, but also face the lack of medical protective equipment at any time and are exposed to a high risk of infection. Once a medical care infection occurs, it will reduce the service capacity of the medical system and fall into an endless loop.

不仅如此,一线医务人员超出医疗服务能力后,不仅工作量大,而且随时面临医疗防护设备的缺乏,容易感染。一旦发生医疗感染,它将降低医疗系统的服务能力并陷入无休止的循环。

Puyo has a basic data in the article: after being infected with the new coronavirus,

Puyo在文章中提供了基本数据:被新型冠状病毒感染后,

Medical equipment such as ventilator and ECMO cannot be produced casually:

呼吸机和ECMO等医疗设备不能随便生产:

Based on this calculation, there are 41,511 infected cases in the United States. Among them, 8302 patients need to be hospitalized, 2076 people need to enter the ICU, and 1038 patients need ventilators and ECMO. Even the existing machines in the United States cannot guarantee the extreme It can be used by critically ill patients.

根据此计算,在美国有41,511例感染病例。其中,需要住院的患者为8302名,需要进入ICU的患者为2076名,需要呼吸机和ECMO的患者为10​​38名。甚至美国现有的机器也无法保证其极限使用。重症患者可以使用它。

This is especially true considering the number of hospital beds.

考虑到医院病床的数量,这一点尤其正确。

In terms of the number of hospital beds per thousand people, Japan and South Korea have relatively abundant beds, with 14 and 12 beds per thousand people respectively; while the United States and the United Kingdom have approximately 3 beds per thousand people.

在每千人病床数上,日本和韩国的病床相对丰富,每千人病床数分别为14和12。而美国和英国每千人大约有3张床。

In another article "Coronavirus, The Hammer and the Dance" (Coronavirus, The Hammer and the Dance), Puyo mapped the situation of patients and beds in the United States.

Puyo在另一篇文章“冠状病毒,锤子和舞蹈”(冠状病毒,锤子和舞蹈)中绘制了美国患者和病床的状况。

In the above figure, the red dotted line is the current state of ICU beds in the United States. There are about 50,000 beds. There are 3 million ICU patients above the dotted line. More than 2 million ICU patients do not receive the corresponding bed care.

在上图中,红色虚线是美国ICU病床的当前状态。大约有50,000张床。虚线上方有300万ICU患者。超过200万ICU患者没有接受相应的床位护理。

This is why the Ferguson team at Imperial College London previously predicted in a research report that under non-pharmacological interventions, even if the United Kingdom and the United States take measures to control, there will be 250,000 deaths in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million deaths in the United States. .

这就是伦敦帝国理工学院弗格森小组先前在一份研究报告中预测的原因,即在非药物干预下,即使英国和美国采取措施进行控制,英国也将有25万人死亡,110万人死亡。在美国。 。

In addition, according to the official modeling statistics of the World Health Organization:

此外,根据世界卫生组织的官方模型统计数据:

These are huge challenges to the medical service capabilities of various countries. It is not difficult to understand why some countries/regions have relatively high fatality rates and some have relatively low mortality rates.

这些都是对各国医疗服务能力的巨大挑战。不难理解为什么有些国家/地区的死亡率较高,而有些国家的死亡率较低。

Therefore, another criterion for evaluating the anti-epidemic performance of countries is the degree of flattening of the case growth curve.

因此,评估国家抗流行病表现的另一个标准是案件增长曲线的平坦程度。

To reduce the fatality rate, we must try to flatten the case growth curve, that is, delay the increase in daily cases under the premise that the new crown virus cannot be eliminated (even if the number of infections is the same for a period of time, regardless of the strategy) This can alleviate the huge pressure on medical resources and buy time to wait for scientists to develop clinical inhibitory drugs and vaccines.

为了降低死亡率,我们必须设法使病例增长曲线变平,也就是说,在不能消除新的冠状病毒的前提下(即使在同一时期内感染次数相同),要延迟每日病例的增加。时间,无论采取何种策略)都可以缓解医疗资源的巨大压力,并有时间等待科学家开发临床抑制药物和疫苗。

So, how are countries doing in flattening the epidemic curve?

那么,各国如何使流行曲线趋于平坦?

The picture above is clear at a glance.

上面的图片一目了然。

Based on this evaluation, most countries are not doing enough to flatten the epidemic curve.

根据此评估,大多数国家在拉平流行曲线方面还做得不够。

The more eye-catching countries and regions are: Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea.

更加引人注目的国家和地区是:日本,新加坡,香港,韩国。

The epidemic curve in South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, China is relatively flat, which is quite different from the performance of other regions in the world. Therefore, these countries and regions also control the fatality rate relatively well.

韩国,日本,新加坡和中国香港的流行曲线相对平坦,这与世界其他地区的表现截然不同。因此,这些国家和地区对病死率的控制也相对较好。

So far, based on the number of deaths/total cases, the fatality rate in these places is about 1%. It can be predicted that even if the epidemic continues to evolve, in the longer term, their lethality curve will still converge below 1%.

到目前为止,根据死亡人数/总病例数计算,这些地方的死亡人数约为1%。可以预见,即使流行继续发展,从长远来看,它们的致死率曲线仍将收敛在1%以下。

Among them, South Korea should be mentioned in particular. If it were not for the Xintiandi church incident, Korea's overall anti-epidemic performance would be better.

其中,尤其应提及韩国。如果不是因为新天地教堂事件,韩国的整体抗疫能力将更好。

An important way to flatten the epidemic curve is early and timely investigation and testing. The earlier the investigation and the more tests, the more timely interventions can be made to prevent more people from being infected, or from mild cases to severe cases and severe cases to death.

扁平化流行曲线的重要方法是及早和及时的调查和测试。调查越早,测试越多,就可以进行更及时的干预,以防止更多的人被感染,或者从轻度病例到重症病例再到严重病例到死亡。

In this regard, South Korea’s performance is amazing: South Korea’s detection rate is very high.

在这方面,韩国的表现令人赞叹:韩国的检出率非常高。

It is not difficult to see from the above table why the United States has been criticized for its performance at the beginning of the epidemic. South Korea has 2138 people checked and tested per million people, while the United States has only one. The UK is not high, only 199.

从上表不难看出,为什么美国在流行之初就因其表现受到批评。韩国每百万人中有2138人经过检查和测试,而美国只有一人。英国不高,只有199。

If the investigation is not active in the early stage, the epidemic curve will inevitably erupt all the way, and the outbreak form of the epidemic curve is exponential. Just let the exponential curve of the epidemic take shape, even if you are a developed country such as the United Kingdom or the United States, in an exponential epidemic Facing the curve, the medical service capacity is not enough. Then, the scale of infection and the number of deaths can also be estimated.

如果调查在早期不活跃,那么流行曲线将不可避免地一路爆发,并且流行曲线的爆发形式是指数式的。即使您是流行病的指数曲线,即使您是英国或美国这样的发达国家,在指数病菌面前面对曲线,医疗服务能力也是不够的。然后,还可以估计感染的规模和死亡人数。

This is cold law and reason. It is also the reason why the United Kingdom and the United States are terrified after Ferguson's forecasting model came out.

这是冷漠的法律和理由。这也是弗格森(Ferguson)的预测模型问世后英国和美国感到恐惧的原因。

With the exponential growth of the epidemic, there is no way to hide the ears.

随着流行的呈指数增长,没有办法掩盖耳朵。

To understand the severity of the epidemic, one must understand what "exponential growth" is.

要了解这种流行病的严重性,必须了解什么是“指数增长”。

As shown in the figure below, the global epidemic situation is confirmed, and the case curve shows a sharp and sharp rise.

如下图所示,全球流行情况得到确认,病例曲线呈急剧上升趋势。

In more precise language, it should be called "Exponential Growth."

用更精确的语言,它应该称为“指数增长”。

When there is no cure for the virus, it spreads exponentially, and the result is extremely deadly.

如果无法治愈该病毒,它就会呈指数级传播,其结果将是致命的。

What is exponential growth?

什么是指数增长?

This is the characteristic of exponential growth. At the beginning, it grows slowly and will not attract people's attention, but when it grows to a certain extent, it explodes violently.

这就是指数增长的特征。起初,它生长缓慢,不会引起人们的注意,但是当它增长到一定程度时,它会剧烈爆炸。

Unfortunately, the outbreak and spread of the new coronavirus is an exponential growth model.

不幸的是,新的冠状病毒的爆发和传播是亚博城手机注册指数增长模型。

 

 

The epidemic began to erupt from China to the global scale, showing a clear upward trend, especially since February 12, the curve of infection cases suddenly became steep, and then the growth was slightly flat, but from the end of February, the curve went further. Climbing upward, there is no sign of slowing down.

该流行病从中国开始爆发到全球范围,呈明显上升趋势,尤其是自2月12日以来,感染病例的曲线突然变得陡峭,然后增长略为平缓,但是从2月底开始,曲线呈上升趋势进一步。向上爬,没有减速的迹象。

 

 

Comparing the global case curves of countries and regions other than mainland China, we can also clearly see that starting from the end of February, the originally flat curve has suddenly and explosively increased.

比较中国大陆以外的国家和地区的全球案例曲线,我们还可以清楚地看到,从2月底开始,原本平坦的曲线突然爆炸性地增长。

The most important feature of this wave of epidemics is so fierce that they are exponentially growing. The reason why the new coronavirus can spread exponentially is that it is not only highly contagious, but also very hidden.

这一波流行病的最重要特征是如此之猛,以至于呈指数增长。新的冠状病毒之所以能够成倍地传播,是因为它不仅具有高传染性,而且非常隐蔽。

When a person is initially infected, due to the incubation period of the virus, he may not realize that he has been infected with the virus, or realize that he is sick but fails to seek medical diagnosis in time. In this way, there is a certain time lag between infection and diagnosis.

最初感染某个人时,由于病毒的潜伏期,他可能没有意识到自己已经感染了该病毒,也可能没有意识到自己生病了,但未能及时寻求医疗诊断。这样,在感染和诊断之间存在一定的时间间隔。

There are still many people who are asymptomatic after contracting the disease, or it takes many days to develop symptoms, and by the time symptoms appear, they have been transmitted to other people. Therefore, to understand the ferocity of this wave of epidemics, we must keep one thing in mind: there is a time lag in confirmed cases.

仍然有许多人在染上该病后无症状,或者花了很多天才出现症状,而当症状出现时,它们已经传染给了其他人。因此,要了解这一波流行病的凶猛性,我们必须牢记一件事:确诊病例有时间滞后。

Because of the lag, when we see the confirmed disease numbers announced by the governments of various countries, this number only represents part of the epidemic situation at that moment. In fact, the entire epidemic situation at this moment will not be reviewed until the incubation period has passed. To know.

由于滞后,当我们看到各国政府宣布的确诊疾病数字时,该数字仅代表当时的流行情况。实际上,在潜伏期过去之前,目前不会对整个流行情况进行审查。要知道。

The actual epidemic situation is far beyond the information that governments of various countries can grasp at the time, but the public is easily confused by the relatively small number of confirmed diagnoses released, thinking that it is not serious, and it is not easy to attract enough subjective attention. When we pay attention, the epidemic has ended the early stage of exponential growth and entered a period of ferocious development.

实际的流行情况远远超出了各国政府当时所能掌握的信息,但是公众对已发布的确诊结果相对较少感到困惑,认为这种情况并不严重,也不容易吸引。足够的主观注意力。当我们注意时,该流行病已经结束了指数增长的早期阶段,进入了一个猛烈的发展时期。

To make this clear, let’s review the case in Hubei.

为了清楚起见,让我们回顾一下湖北的情况。

The above picture is the most important chart mentioned by Puyo in the article, showing the development trend of the new crown epidemic in Hubei from December 8 last year to February 11 this year.

上图是文章中Puyo提到的最重要的图表,显示了去年12月8日至今年2月11日湖北新冠病的发展趋势。

Please note that this histogram has two color bars at each date point. Orange represents the official daily number of confirmed cases, which is the data available to the government at that point in time.

请注意,此直方图在每个日期点都有两个彩条。橙色代表每日确诊病例的官方数字,这是当时政府可获得的数据。

Gray shows the actual number of cases per day. That is, the number of cases that had been infected at the time but were not detected because they had no symptoms. The number of these cases can only be inferred after the patient is diagnosed and asked by doctors to know the earliest time when the patient has the symptoms.

灰色显示每天的实际病例数。也就是说,当时已被感染但由于没有症状而未被发现的病例数。这些病例的数量只能在诊断出患者并由医生要求知道患者出现症状的最早时间后才能推断出来。

Obviously, at every point in time, the gray bars are much larger than the orange bars. In other words,

显然,在每个时间点,灰色条都比橙色条大得多。换一种说法,

Take Hubei on this picture as an example. On January 21, when the government announced that there were less than 100 new cases (orange), the actual number of newly infected cases on that day exceeded 1,500 (gray bars).

以这张照片上的湖北为例。 1月21日,当政府宣布新病例少于100例(橙色)时,当天的实际新感染病例数超过1,500例(灰色条)。

On January 22, the day before the lockdown of Wuhan, the number of newly confirmed cases in Hubei on that day was 444 (orange bars). The actual number of new cases on that day should be 2000 (gray bars).

1月22日,即武汉禁区前一天,湖北当天新确诊的病例为444(橙色柱)。当天的实际新病例数应为2000(灰色条)。

At this time, what is the actual cumulative number of confirmed cases in Hubei Province?

目前,湖北省累计确诊病例数是多少?

We only need to add up all the gray bars before January 22 to get the number: 12,000 cases. Therefore, when we see the government announced the number of 444 cases, it should actually be 2,000 cases, and the actual cumulative number is 12,000 cases.

我们只需要在1月22日之前将所有灰条相加即可得出数字:12,000个案例。因此,当我们看到政府宣布了444例案件时,实际上应该是2,000例,而实际累计数目是12,000例。

But, in retrospect,

但是,回想起来,

This is the ferocity of the aforementioned epidemic. The incubation period + asymptomatic + exponential growth has made our intuitive perception of the development of the epidemic lag behind.

这就是上述流行病的残酷性。潜伏期+无症状+指数增长使我们对流行病的发展滞后于直觉。

The new crown virus is too cunning.

新的冠状病毒太狡猾了。

Of course, from the picture above, we can also see the importance of the Wuhan lockdown on January 23. After the city was closed, the actual epidemic situation represented by the gray bars soon began to decline.

当然,从上面的图片中,我们还可以看到1月23日武汉封锁的重要性。城市关闭之后,以灰色条表示的实际流行情况很快开始下降。

The data in the chart clearly shows this.

图表中的数据清楚地表明了这一点。

Wuhan was closed on January 23, and then 15 other cities in Hubei were also closed. The entire gray bar has gradually decreased from the original significant increase, which means that the actual number of infected cases has fallen. Of course, the gray bars increased sharply on February 1. This is because patients who were previously infected but were not tested in time spread the virus without knowing it. After the incubation period, the virus began to break out in about a week.

武汉于1月23日关闭,然后湖北其他15个城市也关闭了。整个灰色条已从最初的显着增加逐渐减少,这意味着实际感染病例数已经下降。当然,灰色条形在2月1日急剧增加。这是因为先前感染但未及时测试的患者在不知情的情况下传播了该病毒。潜伏期过后,病毒在大约一周内开始爆发。

Although the orange bars continued to rise as of February 4, the increase in the number of confirmed cases at this time does not mean the outbreak of the epidemic, but more and more patients who were infected earlier have been diagnosed.

尽管从2月4日起橙色条形图继续上升,但此时确诊病例数的增加并不意味着该流行病的爆发,但是已经诊断出越来越多的早期感染患者。

In other countries, Italy, the United States, Germany, and France, the epidemic situation is growing rapidly, and it is also a disadvantage that suffers. As long as you are not aware of the difference between the gray and orange bars of the epidemic, you will encounter the danger of a sudden and rapid outbreak of the epidemic.

在其他国家(意大利,美国,德国和法国),疫情正在迅速增长,这也是一种不利条件。只要您不了解该流行病的灰色和橙色条形之间的差异,就会遇到该流行病突然而迅速爆发的危险。

Of course, closing the city is not the only move that can be taken (closing the city is a hard landing and the cost is too great). Early and extensive testing is another good alternative to control the epidemic.

当然,关闭城市并不是唯一可以采取的措施(关闭城市是硬着陆,代价太大)。早期和广泛的检测是控制该流行病的另一个很好的选择。

South Korea is an outstanding representative. The earlier the extensive coverage detection is, the more you can find the difference between the gray bars and the orange bars, the more you can realize the seriousness of the problem, and the more opportunities you have to take corresponding isolation measures to reduce damage.

韩国是杰出的代表。广泛的覆盖范围检测越早,您越能发现灰色条和橙色条之间的差异,您就越能意识到问题的严重性,并且您有更多的机会采取相应的隔离措施来减少损坏。

In any case, to understand the horror of this wave of epidemics, we must understand the difference between the gray and orange bars at each point in time. The concealment and incubation period of the virus have jointly created such a crisis. At every point in time, our confirmed cases will always be the tip of the iceberg.

无论如何,要了解这种流行病的恐怖程度,我们必须了解每个时间点的灰色和橙色条形之间的差异。病毒的隐藏和潜伏期共同造成了这种危机。在每个时间点,我们确诊的病例始终都是冰山一角。

In order to deepen your impression, let's change the angle and explain the terrible difference.

为了加深您的印象,让我们改变角度并解释可怕的区别。

Start with this question: when we hear a death case, how many infected people should actually be outside?

从这个问题开始:当我们听到死亡案例时,实际上应该有多少感染者在外面?

A patient has gone through the following stages from life to death:

病人从生到死都经历了以下几个阶段:

As mentioned earlier, according to different levels of epidemic control, there are two fatality rates. Well controlled, the fatality rate is 1%; if it is not well controlled, the fatality rate is 4%. If the fatality rate is 1%, then 100 people should have been infected at the initial moment of the illness.

如前所述,根据不同的流行病控制水平,有两个死亡率。如果控制得当,病死率是1%;如果控制不好,病死率为4%。如果死亡率为1%,那么在疾病的最初时刻应该感染了100个人。

Because the virus is highly contagious, these 100 people will infect many people by the time this patient finally dies. This value is called the effective infection number (Re), and the value changes at different stages. For example, before the closure of Wuhan, when the epidemic was not under control, the median was generally estimated to be 2.38 (95% confidence interval: 2.04-2.77).

由于该病毒具有高度传染性,因此该患者最终死亡时,这100个人将感染许多人。该值称为有效感染数(Re),该值在不同阶段变化。例如,在武汉关闭之前,当疫情没有得到控制时,中位数通常被估计为2.38(95%可信区间:2.04-2.77)。

After the city is closed, the effective number of infections is generally estimated to be 1.36 (95% confidence interval: 1.14-1.63) from January 24 to February 3, and the effective number of infections from January 24 to February 8 is 0.99 (95 % Confidence interval: 0.76-1.33).

在城市关闭之后,从1月24日到2月3日的有效感染总数通常估计为1.36(95%置信区间:1.14-1.63),从1月24日至2月8日的有效感染总数为0.99(95) %置信区间:0.76-1.33)。

In order to simplify the explanation, we use a simpler concept "multiplication" to illustrate: how many days the overall case doubles. Of course, the magnification rate is also related to the intensity of isolation control adopted by various governments. The lower the intensity, the lower the rate, the shorter the time for the number of infections to double, and the faster the spread of the virus.

为了简化说明,我们使用一个更简单的概念“乘法”来说明:整个案例加倍了多少天。当然,放大率也与各国政府所采取的隔离控制的强度有关。强度越低,发生率越低,感染次数加倍的时间越短,病毒传播越快。

Therefore, in order to answer the above question, the following data are needed: the length of the incubation period, the time period of diagnosis-death, and the rate.

因此,为了回答上述问题,需要以下数据:潜伏期的长度,诊断死亡的时间段和发生率。

These data, we use Thomas Puyo's estimation in the article.

这些数据,我们在本文中使用Thomas Puyo的估计。

(1) Incubation period: about 5 days;

(1)潜伏期:约5天;

(2) The cycle from diagnosis to death is approximately 15 days;

(2)从诊断到死亡的周期约为15天;

Therefore, the period from infection to death of a person is 5+15=20 days. In these 20 days, how many times will the first 100 infected people double?

因此,从感染到死亡的时间为5 + 15 = 20天。在这20天内,前100名受感染者将翻倍多少次?

(3) Magnification: Unfortunately, if we take Hubei as an example, Hubei’s initial control is very poor, so the magnification is lower than other regions. According to the estimation in the following table, the time range of the magnification is between [3 days-9.3 days], and the median value is 4.6 days. For our rough calculation, we use the value of 5 days.

(3)放大倍率:不幸的是,如果以湖北为例,湖北的初始控制效果很差,因此放大倍率低于其他地区。根据下表中的估计,放大的时间范围在[3天-9.3天]之间,中位数为4.6天。对于我们的粗略计算,我们使用5天的值。

Doubled in 5 days, quadrupled in 20 days. 100 infected people became 1,600 infected people.

5天内翻了一番,20天内翻了两番。 100名感染者变成了1600名感染者。

Be more specific.

更加详细一些。

Assuming that the patient we mentioned earlier passed away unfortunately on February 19, his diagnosis should be on February 4, and the time of infection should be on January 31. When the fatality rate was 1%, 100 people were infected on January 31. On February 4, when this patient was diagnosed, the number of infections doubled to 200. By the time he died on February 19, the number of infec亚博888apptions Reached 1,600 people.

假设我们前面提到的患者不幸在2月19日去世,他的诊断应该在2月4日,并且感染的时间应该在1月31日。当死亡率为1%时,则在1月31日感染了100人。 2月4日,诊断出该患者时,感染次数翻了一番,达到200。到2月19日去世时,感染人数达到1600人。

So, when we heard that there was 1 death, there were actually 1,600 infected people.

因此,当我们听说有1人死亡时,实际上有1600人被感染。

This is the horror of exponential growth. At first, people didn't care about one or two deaths or confirmed cases. It was not until the lotus leaves overgrown the pond and there was an explosive growth that they began to take measures to fight the epidemic.

这是指数增长的恐怖。起初,人们并不关心一两个人死亡或确诊病例。直到荷叶长满池塘,并且爆发式增长之后,他们才开始采取措施应对这种流行病。

Of course, the pond in the lotus leaf will not continue to grow indefinitely, spreading across our entire planet.

当然,荷叶边的池塘不会无限期地继续生长,而是遍布我们整个星球。

Because the spread of the virus also requires certain conditions, after leaving the host, the virus will die; and when the infected patient is isolated and cannot spread outside, the power of the virus reaches its limit, and the growth rate of cases will gradually slow down.

由于病毒的传播还需要一定的条件,因此离开宿主后,病毒将死亡。当被感染的病人被隔离并且无法传播到外部时,病毒的力量就达到了极限,病例的增长率将逐渐减慢。

The S-shaped curve in the above figure represents the total number of cases, and the slope of the tangent line passing through a point on the curve represents the number of new cases on the day. It can be seen that as time changes, the slope of the curve gradually increases, but after a certain "inflection point", the slope of the curve becomes smaller and smaller.

上图中的S形曲线表示案例总数,穿过曲线上一点的切线斜率表示当天的新案例数量。可以看出,随着时间的变化,曲线的斜率逐渐增加,但是在某个“拐点”之后,曲线的斜率变得越来越小。

We also show the slope of the tangent as a curve, just like the red curve in the figure above.

我们还将切线的斜率显示为曲线,就像上图中的红色曲线一样。

The white dotted line in the figure represents the epidemic prevention level of the medical system. If the red curve is above the white line, it means that the medical system cannot cope with the dilemma of new cases. This is what we mentioned earlier, when the new case curve exceeds the medical service capacity At this time, the fatality rate will be directly affected.

图中的白色虚线表示医疗系统的防疫等级。如果红色曲线高于白线,则意味着医疗系统无法应对新病例的困境。这就是我们前面提到的,当新的病例曲线超过医疗服务能力时,此时的病死率将受到直接影响。

The various measures taken by various governments in the fight against the epidemic are ultimately reflected in the impact on the red curve and the improvement of the white curve. The more aggressive the intervention, the more the gap between the red curve and the white medical service line can be narrowed.

各国政府在抗击流行病方面采取的各种措施最终反映在对红色曲线的影响和白色曲线的改善上。干预措施越积极,红色曲线和白色医疗服务线之间的差距就越窄。

Obviously, among all the standards that measure the government’s performance in fighting the epidemic, the most important is the fatality rate we talked about at the beginning. As long as you are not dead, you can always get through it slowly. But once people die, things can go badly.

显然,在衡量政府抗击流行病表现的所有标准中,最重要的是我们在一开始就谈到的死亡率。只要您还没死,就可以慢慢解决它。但是一旦人们死亡,事情就会变得很糟。

In order to reduce the fatality rate, it is nothing more than the two methods mentioned above:

为了降低死亡率,无非就是上述两种方法:

If the increase in new cases is slow enough, the existing medical system can maintain normal operations, control mortality, better respond to the epidemic, and buy more time for vaccine development.

如果新病例的增加足够缓慢,则现有的医疗系统可以维持正常运转,控制死亡率,更好地应对流行病,并有更多时间开发疫苗。

In layman's terms, we cannot eliminate the coronavirus. We can only delay the chance of contracting the virus until humans have successfully developed a vaccine to completely solve the virus.

用外行的话说,我们不能消除冠状病毒。我们只能延迟感染病毒的机会,直到人类成功开发出一种可以完全解决该病毒的疫苗为止。

So, what should be done to "flatten" this curve as much as possible?

那么,应该怎么做才能尽可能“平坦”该曲线?

The answer is also obvious. We cannot control the virus, but we can control ourselves: social distancing (Social Distancing).

答案也很明显。我们无法控制病毒,但我们可以控制自己:社交距离(Social Distancing)。

This is what we Chinese have done for more than two months. Stay at home, try not to go out, and reduce contact with others. We really have to wear masks when we go out.

这是我们中国人两个多月以来所做的事情。呆在家里,尽量不要外出,并减少与他人的接触。我们外出时确实必须戴口罩。

All localities have increased the supervision and investigation of mobile vehicles and population, closed the city, closed roads and closed communities, closed schools, delayed the resumption of work, and closed all non-essential business places...

各地都增加了对机动车辆和人口的监督和调查,关闭了城市,关闭了道路和封闭的社区,关闭了学校,推迟了恢复工作的时间,并关闭了所有不必要的营业场所...

The effect is also obvious. As we mentioned above, almost from the beginning of the closure of Hubei, the actual number of infection cases began to decline. As of now, the number of new cases in Hubei has dropped to zero, and the epidemic in China is basically under control.

效果也很明显。如上所述,几乎从湖北关闭之初开始,实际感染病例数就开始下降。截至目前,湖北省新增病例数已降至零,中国的疫情已基本得到控制。

Of course, the economic and social costs we have paid are considerable. Is it just such a model for fighting the epidemic? Not at all.

当然,我们付出的经济和社会代价是相当大的。就是这样一种抗击流行病的模式吗?一点也不。

As mentioned earlier, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore had infected cases very early, but the overall curve was flat, and the fatality rate was lower than that of other countries.

如前所述,韩国,日本和新加坡很早就感染了病例,但总体曲线是平坦的,病死率低于其他国家。

These countries have generally adopted a "suppression" strategy: using strong measures to ensure that all cases are tested, controlled and isolated, effectively reducing the fluidity of the virus and blocking the spread of the virus.

这些国家普遍采取了“遏制”战略:采取有力措施,确保对所有病例进行测试,控制和隔离,有效地减少了病毒的流动性并阻止了病毒的传播。

The corresponding economic and social costs are smaller.

相应的经济和社会成本较小。

However, a small price is also a price. This is why many countries have been slow to adopt strict measures. The excessively high cost of restraint will hit the economy. They chose another "mitigation" strategy.

但是,小的价格也是一个价格。这就是为什么许多国家缓慢采取严格措施的原因。束缚成本过高将打击经济。他们选择了另一种“缓解”策略。

Mitigation strategies do not impose restrictions on people's travel or activities, and close public places, but only "recommend" those who are sick or vulnerable to isolation. The most representative ones are Britain and the United States.

缓解策略不对人们的出行或活动施加限制,也不限制公共场所,而只是“推荐”那些生病或容易遭受孤立的人。最具代表性的是英国和美国。

But with the report from Imperial College London, Britain and the United States have changed their minds and turned to restraint strategies.

但是,随着伦敦帝国理工学院的报告,英国和美国改变了主意,转向了克制策略。

Puyo described the suppression measures as "Hammer" in "New Coronavirus: Hammer and Dance", which can bring about new cases and a rapid decline in mortality, and provide time for further epidemic prevention work.

Puyo在“新冠状病毒:锤子和舞蹈”中将抑制措施描述为“锤子”,它可以带来新的病例并迅速降低死亡率,并为进一步的防疫工作提供时间。

China's measures are even more of an iron hammer.

中国的措施更像是铁锤子。

If the hammer strategy can take effect, after that, it will be a relatively loose "Dance" process. As long as the epidemic can be controlled in the "hammer period", the "dancing period" only needs basic means to stabilize and achieve improvement.

如果重击策略能够生效,在那之后,这将是一个相对宽松的“舞蹈”过程。只要能够在“锤击时期”控制该流行病,“跳舞时期”只需要基本手段就能稳定并取得改善。

In international comparison, some countries have taken appropriate measures, such as "effective testing, effective tracking, travel bans, effective isolation and quarantine", such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. They did not even go through the "hammer" stage and they ushered in the "dance". period".

在国际比较中,日本,韩国和新加坡等一些国家已采取了“有效检测,有效跟踪,旅行禁令,有效隔离和检疫”等适当措施。他们甚至没有经历“锤子”阶段,而是迎来了“舞蹈”。期”。

China's response was delayed at first, and then the "big hammer" was raised. After paying a huge social and economic cost, the epidemic was controlled well, but whether it can usher in the "dancing period" in the end is still a challenge.

起初中国的反应被推迟了,然后提出了“大锤子”。在付出了巨大的社会和经济代价之后,这一流行病得到了很好的控制,但是到底能否迎来“跳舞期”仍然是一个挑战。

The United Kingdom, the United States, and some other European countries began to reluctant to bear the "hammer", and eventually had to pick up the "hammer". They are currently in the most terrifying high-explosive stage. Can they transition to the "dancing period" at a relatively small cost "It remains to be seen.

英国,美国和其他一些欧洲国家开始不愿意承担“锤子”,最终不得不拿起“锤子”。他们目前处于最恐怖的高爆炸阶段。他们能否以相对较低的成本过渡到“跳舞时期”?“还有待观察。

Generally speaking, whether they prefer it or not, most countries will eventually have to pick up the "hammer."

一般来说,无论他们是否愿意,大多数国家最终都将不得不承担起“锤子”。

As Puyo said in the article: When does the "hammer" begin to fall?

正如Puyo在文章中所说:“锤子”何时开始下降?

(This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. )

(这是指数级威胁。每一天都很重要。 )

Copyright © 2016 All Rights Reserved 版权所有· 亚博888app—亚博城手机注册